Multivariate Modelling of Hydroclimate Processes: Copulas and Multi-Hazard Analysis

PhD short course in the Technology and natural sciences doctoral programme
Lecturer: Dr Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University

Time: 22.-24.10.2019
Place: Tellus Innovation Arena, Linnanmaa Campus, University of Oulu, Finland

Course outline
Many hydroclimatological variables are interdependent and often multi-variate methods are required to understand their interactions and dependence structure. Examples are numerous, including drought severity, flood duration, peak, and intensity. Univariate analysis methods often fail to represent such processes adequately, and hence multivariate approaches are employed to sufficiently analyze them. Copulas, as a vehicle for multivariate analysis, are widely used in the field of hydrology, climatology, and extreme value analysis, among others.

In this workshop, we discuss the copula theory and provide hands-on practice on several projects. We will introduce and employ Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT) and Multi-hazard Analysis and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) to solve a wide range of real-world multivariate problems. Key note lectures will be presented by expert from Boise state university. The course is open to PhD* and Master students in water, energy, geosciences, ecology, engineering, environmental and health sciences.  Course credits 2 ECTS including compulsory attendance, homework exercise (for own case or other cases to be decided). Reporting and evaluation: pass/fail of short study report.  For registration, send request to course contact person 

NOTE: If you wish to present your PhD or research work (maximum 10 cases) and discuss on possibility of applied Multivariate Modelling, please send a brief presentation of your work to contact persons by 19.10.2019.

Course contacts
Dr. Ali Torabi Haghighi (Ali.TorabiHaghighi at oulu.fi)
Dr. Nasim Fazel (nasim.fazel at oulu.fi)

Program

Day 1, 22.10.2019: Introduction to marginal and joint probability distributions
Place: Tellus Stage

09:15-09:30  Introduction to the course and introduce the invited lecturer. Dr. Ali Torabi Haghighi, Univeristy of Oulu

09:30-11:15  Intro to marginal distributions and application in flood, drought and heatwave analysis. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA

11:15-12:45  Lunch (at own cost)

12:45-14:15  Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of distributions. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA

Coffee break

14:30-16:00  Hands-on Practice. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA
 

Day 2, 23.10.2019: Introduction to Multivariate Copula Analysis
Place: Tellus Stage

9:00-10:30  Introduction to Multivariate Copula Analysis. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA

Coffee break

10:45-12:15  Application of Multivariate Copula Analysis. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA

12:15-13:15  Lunch (at own cost)

13:15-14:45 Copula Toolbox (MvCAT) and Multi-hazard Analysis and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST). Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA

Coffee break

15:00-16:15  Hands-on Practice. Dr. Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, USA
 

Day 3, 24.10.2019: Open discussion
Place: Tellus Business kitchen

10:00-16:00 Open discussion with PhD students about Applied Multivariate Copula Analysis in PhD work (Optional)

 

About the lecturer
Dr. Sadegh is an assistant professor of Civil Engineering at Boise State University. He has worked on a broad range of research topics focused on hydroclimatic extremes. His recent research efforts are multi- and trans-disciplinary, and involve collaboration across engineering, geosciences, geography, political, social and health sciences. Specifically, he is interested in compound and cascading disasters, such as 1. Flooding due to concurrence of high estuary water levels and river discharge and due to concurrence of high water levels and wind-driven waves, 2. Compounding effects of dryness and excess heat on exacerbating ecosystem impacts of drought, 3. Risk and frequency analysis given various characteristics of heatwaves – i.e. severity, duration, frequency – and 4. Compounding impacts of various climatic, meteorological and biophysical variables on growing wildfire sizes in Western U.S. Other topics of interest for him include nonstationary modelling of hydroclimate variables and processes, changes in hydrological processes in a warming climate, health impacts of heatwaves, and health and societal impacts of wildfire smoke.   

https://coen.boisestate.edu/faculty-staff/mojtabasadegh/

Last updated: 26.9.2019