Effectuation through Prospective Sensemaking – Leading to the Future
Thesis event information
Date and time of the thesis defence
Place of the thesis defence
Linnanmaa, TA105
Topic of the dissertation
Effectuation through Prospective Sensemaking – Leading to the Future
Doctoral candidate
Master of Science Liisa Juujärvi
Faculty and unit
University of Oulu Graduate School, Oulu Business School, Department of Marketing, Management and International Business
Subject of study
Management
Opponent
Associate Professor Vinciane Servantie, Excelia Business School
Custos
Professor Vesa Puhakka, University of Oulu
The future is created by leading
How to lead toward an uncertain future? What happens when a company is expected to deliver new products, but future markets and customer needs remain unknown? Markets and technologies are evolving faster than ever, and the competition for emerging markets is fierce. A company that reaches the market first can gain a significant competitive advantage. At the same time, decisions must ensure that risks are controlled, and costs remain manageable.
This dissertation research examines how leaders perceive the future and take controlled steps towards the unknown, even when future customer needs are unclear. The study explores how leaders utilize effectuation logic, which facilitates the progress with the incomplete information.
The research highlights that visions of the future are not based on prediction but they are created in the negotiations among various stakeholders, and leveraging the resources available to the company, where the decisions about the future are made.
This challenges the traditional view of leaders as solitary decision-makers and visionaries, underscoring the importance of collaboration. According to the study, a key to creating the future lies in an incremental approach, where visions evolve incrementally, adapting to new information and circumstances. Solutions are flexible and adaptable, enabling progress toward the future, even when the target remains unclear.
Creating the new products also requires necessitating the power of collaboration, where the discussions about products take place openly, without prior knowledge or certainty about the outcomes. Sometimes leaders are told what kind of products to create rather than telling what should be made. This demands time, resources, and investment without guaranteed results.
While success depends on the collective expertise, the knowledge, experiences, and relationships of individuals are crucial for achieving the goals in the future. The networks which are built through long-term collaboration enable the transfer of new knowledge and skills both within and outside the organization. This requires open organizational structures that allow the interaction between teams and organizations.
The core message of this research is that the future does not simply happen to us, but it is created through human action and is built incrementally through collaboration and collective decision-making. Leading must be focused on people who, with their expertise and cooperation, guide the company toward success. This underscores the significance of individuals as creators of organisational value and as enablers of new opportunities.
This dissertation research examines how leaders perceive the future and take controlled steps towards the unknown, even when future customer needs are unclear. The study explores how leaders utilize effectuation logic, which facilitates the progress with the incomplete information.
The research highlights that visions of the future are not based on prediction but they are created in the negotiations among various stakeholders, and leveraging the resources available to the company, where the decisions about the future are made.
This challenges the traditional view of leaders as solitary decision-makers and visionaries, underscoring the importance of collaboration. According to the study, a key to creating the future lies in an incremental approach, where visions evolve incrementally, adapting to new information and circumstances. Solutions are flexible and adaptable, enabling progress toward the future, even when the target remains unclear.
Creating the new products also requires necessitating the power of collaboration, where the discussions about products take place openly, without prior knowledge or certainty about the outcomes. Sometimes leaders are told what kind of products to create rather than telling what should be made. This demands time, resources, and investment without guaranteed results.
While success depends on the collective expertise, the knowledge, experiences, and relationships of individuals are crucial for achieving the goals in the future. The networks which are built through long-term collaboration enable the transfer of new knowledge and skills both within and outside the organization. This requires open organizational structures that allow the interaction between teams and organizations.
The core message of this research is that the future does not simply happen to us, but it is created through human action and is built incrementally through collaboration and collective decision-making. Leading must be focused on people who, with their expertise and cooperation, guide the company toward success. This underscores the significance of individuals as creators of organisational value and as enablers of new opportunities.
Last updated: 17.1.2025