The essential ingredients for business model innovation on the verge of emerging disruptive technologies: Harnessing foresight, mastering sensemaking, and embracing learning

This doctoral dissertation explores how organizations can renew their business models (BMs) in the face of rapid technological disruption and environmental turbulence. The research highlights the limitations of traditional business model innovation (BMI) approaches in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) contexts and proposes strategic foresight as a key enabler of future-oriented BMI development.

This dissertation presents four interconnected studies that illustrate how foresight methods—such as horizon scanning, scenario planning, and visioning—enable firms to anticipate change, overcome cognitive and structural barriers, and align BMI with emerging technologies like 5G networks. The findings reveal that strategic foresight not only broadens BMI beyond established logics but also enhances organizational sensemaking and learning.

Empirical evidence confirms that strategic foresight has a significant impact on BMI, both directly and indirectly, by enhancing sensemaking and learning. This research employs a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative methodologies with quantitative hypothesis testing, thereby providing a comprehensive framework for analysis. The findings offer actionable insights for managers seeking to develop innovative, agile, and resilient BMs.

This pioneering work is the first to systematically and empirically link strategic foresight with BMI, making a valuable contribution to both academic theory and the practical development of BMI in dynamic technological landscapes.