Geospatial analysis of permafrost thaw-induced slope processes and their hazard potential across the Arctic

As the Arctic warms up to four times faster than the global average, thawing permafrost is triggering widespread cryogenic landslides that reshape the terrain, disrupt ecosystems, and threaten human activities.

The thesis presents a circumpolar susceptibility map for retrogressive thaw slumps - a type of cryogenic landslide - based on an inventory of over 19,000 observed features and advanced statistical modeling. At the circumpolar scale, Makopoulou shows that air temperature thawing degree days, freezing degree days, and rainfall are the dominant factors controlling where slope failures occur. However, a regional comparison of 19 permafrost landscapes across the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau reveals a shift in the balance of controls, with thawing degree days, site water balance, and rainfall emerging as the most important drivers, highlighting that while climate remains central, the specific combination of factors shaping slope instability varies between regions and must be accounted for in local risk assessments.

Makopoulou also examines the societal dimension of permafrost instability, revealing that over 20% of major oil pipelines and significant stretches of Arctic highways in Alaska and northwestern Canada traverse highly susceptible terrain. In Yukon, popular national parks overlap with landslide-prone terrain, yet current tourism management frameworks rarely address thaw-related hazards, leaving summer visitors exposed to risks they are unlikely to recognize.

By connecting geophysical susceptibility with infrastructure vulnerability and human presence, the research offers a multiscale framework for anticipating permafrost-related risks and supporting adaptation planning in rapidly changing northern environments.